Super Tuesday Predictions - Part II

My Top 3

So Verizon’s lousy Internet kept me down for a day and a half, which means this’ll have to be quick.

First, I was wrong about California in the GOP side; it’s not winner-take-all, it’s proportional. That helps Romney a bit, but the fact remains Mitt’s gonna need a big run today not to be completely behind.

Now for the Dem predictions.

• New York - 281 delegates - It’s her home state and a closed primary and the polls have consistently had her up double-digits. Hill-dawg should get about 170 of those delegates.
• Jersey - 127 - Same media market, and the CW says that it should be hers, but polls have shown a late Obama surge. Will large black populations in Newark and Camden etc. help him? I’ve got her getting 67 of the ‘gates.
• Massachusetts - 121 - Clinton still up in polls, but the numbers make no sense, and the Kennedys and Deval Patrick should help control the damage. She gets 65.
• Arkansas - 47 - Her former home state. She should pick up at least 28 delegates.
• Tennessee - 85 - Sure, there’s plenty of racists, but I don’t understand why she’s up 20 here. It’s a red state and Obama should be competitive, but he’s clearly not. She should get 50 of the delegates or - 185 - He’s up 30 in the polling average. He gets 110.
• Georgia - 103 - He’s up 20, and we remember SC. He gets 63.
• Colorado - 71 - Red states are good to him, and he plays well there. 40.
• Utah - 29 - Ditto. 18.
• Idaho - 23 - Hillary has no presence in the state. 15.
• Kansas - 41 - His mom is from Kansas, and he has the governor’s endorsement. 24.
• Alaska - 18 - More of the red state thing. 11.
• North Dakota - 21 - If they gave bonus points for right angles in state boundaries, Obama would crush her. 13.

• California - 441 - Polling shows Obama coming from behind in this state that was once a safe zone for Hillary. One has him ahead, which is where I see him, albeit very slightly, thanks in part to a rural weighting for delegates. He gets 225.
• Arizona - 67 - Clinton’s had the slight edge, but it’s the type of state that Obama likes, and he has Gov. Janet Napolitano’s endorsement. 34-33 Obama.
• Alabama - 60 - Polls have them within the margin, but I learned from SC. Obama 34-26.
• Connecticut - 60 - Polls have them tighter than they should be, given this is Hillary territory. I think she takes it by one delegate, 31-29.
• Oklahoma - 47 - It’s red, and near Kansas, but it’s also near Arkansas and maybe they don’t like black people named Barack Obama. Hillary takes it, 25-22.
• New Mexico - 38 - Similar to Arizona. It’d be better for Barack, but the heavy Latino population leans Hillary. Obama 35-33.
• Delaware - 23 - Strange people, politically, and not really in or out of the New York sphere of influence. Liberal, though. Obama 13-10.
• American Samoa - 9 - I have no flipping idea. Hard to believe they’re racist, though. Still, Hillary did mention them in a speech. 5-4 Hillary.

Totals ….

Okay, I swear, I just crunched the numbers. This was not a ruse from the start to get a specific total. I just winged the answers and got…

Hillary: 953
Obama: 952

Uhm. Wow. I give up.

If you want an endorsement from me on this side, now that it’s too late, here it is:

I think the worst thing that could happen to this country right now is to elect Bush again. John McCain seems to trying to convince us that he is Bush Lite. So I would pick the one that I think is most likely to beat McCain. To me, that’s . Also, he’s the kind of politics I like; a smart person who doesn’t resort to name-calling and pettiness.

The right wing doesn’t like McCain, and they aren’t excited about backing him. Evangelicals will stay home, and the money will not roll in for him. Unless the Dems nominate Hillary, in which case it’ll be the typical nail-biter. Obama will take 5-10% of Republicans, he can speak to evangelicals and Goldwater Republicans, and you can tell that because absolutely ZERO Republicans would rather run against him than Hillary. Additionally, he has the capability (not probability, but possibility) of delivering a wave election like the ones that enabled Social Security, Medicare, and Reaganomics (not a good thing, in my opinion, but still a big one). He just might be this generation’s Lincoln, and I think that’s worth doing something a little different for. Not to mention, everyone I’ve talked to who has seen him is planning to vote for him, which says something.

All right, I’ll be eating, drinking and watching all night. God bless America.