Panthers Vs. Raiders - Preview

My Top 3

The bean counters out Penrith way are cursing the Panthers this week after their dismal round one performance. The optimism and freshness of the season has all but been quashed and instead of the faithful foaming at the mouth to see their ‘new-look’ side, the overwhelming sense is ‘here we go again!’.

But those fans shouldn’t give up just yet. Surely you remember 2003 – the glory days. In what was a premiership year, the mountain men lost their opening round clash to Brisbane and followed it up by being hammered by Melbourne before finishing minor premiers – so all is not yet lost.

And the fact is – this team needs your support.

Coach Matthew Elliott has wielded the axe in the wake of the 48-12 shellacking in Brisbane – gone is halfback Joe Williams and in comes winger Mark O’Halloran.

This causes a backline reshuffle: Michael Jennings moves from the wing to centre, Maurice Blair from centre to five-eighth, Jarrod Sammut comes from the bench to start at halfback and Frank Pritchard goes from five-eighth to his more customary back-row. Prop Adam Woolnough has been benched in favour of Brendan Worth and Tony Puletua will also start from the pine. Matthew Bell has come onto a five-man bench.

After leaving their run against Newcastle too late, Canberra travel to Penrith looking for an 80-minute performance, rather than a patchy up-and-down effort like the one they produced.

Injury has forced a few changes for Neil Henry’s men, with both Neville Costigan (quadriceps) and Glenn Turner (ankle) looking at six weeks absent.

Nigel Plum and Joe Picker join the squad while Trevor Thurling is the fifth man added to the bench.

Watch out Panthers!: The Raiders will be hunting down the left side, coming straight at the right-side defence who leaked five of the seven tries last weekend.

The fringe was the worst area for the Panthers; four tries came on the left edge meaning the five-eighth, centre and back row must communicate better if they are to steel up the area.

Watch out Raiders!: Be ready for a kicking assault both aerial and on the ground. The Raiders showed they haven’t repaired a major deficiency in their game from last season – shutting down attacking kicks.

Three of the Knights’ five tries came from the boot. In fact, the Canberra side managed to diffuse just 38 per cent of attacking kicks in the match.

In other words, the Panthers have a better than 50:50 shot at getting a result from a kick – so expect Sammut to test them.

Where it will be won: The error count and therefore possession rate in this game is crucial.

Each team has major deficiencies and chinks in their armour so both coaches should be stressing the need to stay on-task and complete the basics first.

The two teams were the only sides to fail to reach 1000 metres gained in round one (Canberra 930m, Penrith 971m) and if that continues it could come down to the kicking from both sides.

While they can’t diffuse a kick to save their life, the Raiders have the edge in the long-kicking department.

Against the Knights they gained 533 metres with the boot, while the Panthers gained just 321 metres against Brisbane. But more telling is the percentage of kicks that found space and gave the kick-chase team more time to surround their opposition.

Canberra found space on 71.4 per cent of occasions – the Panthers a dismal 33.3 per cent.

The History: Played 51; Panthers 25, Raiders 25, drawn 1. Barring a draw one of these teams will take the lead in the head-to-head battles and if the last few years are a guide the Raiders have the edge.

The boys from Canberra have won five of the past six games, including two clashes last season.

The Raiders struggle to travel and this is their second road trip in as many weeks; but they are not out of this game just yet.

The Panthers have the squad to beat them – but do they have the desire? The apathy from last season returned last weekend and it was truly sad to watch Petero Civoniceva work his guts out with very little support.

It’s a difficult one to tip: Penrith should win at home, but in theory, communism works too.

Match officials: Referee – Jason Robinson; Sideline Officials – Jeff Younis and Bernard Suttor; Video ref – Graeme West.

Televised: LIVE Foxsports 1 – 5.30pm